Predictions (Review)

by Ryan Markiewicz | Jul 18, 2024 | Berlin's Wall

Per my earlier blog about betting and predicting the presidential elections–remember that I said I quit betting because you never know what’s gonna happen.

The shooting in Butler is a case in point. Unexpected, out of the blue, and a possible game changer–hopefully for the best (as these bad events sometimes are).

Because even though almost everyone is saying it now, it’s true–we need to tamp down the hate and the outrage and anger in this country.  And getting shot at, and having the shooter miss by an inch–whether it was God’s hand that turned his head or sheer dumb luck–that’ll make you think.  That will make you realize how fragile life is, even for a former, and possible future President.  Today we could have very easily been having Donald Trump’s funeral, instead of his acceptance speech at the Republican convention.  Life is very often a game of inches, and turns on a dime.

So hopefully, this talk will sincerely promote unity, will tone down the volume. Hopefully in that regard, Donald Trump is a changed man and will lead his followers and others to do the same. We’ll see.  I am hopeful, and actually would bet on it, if I were still a betting man. But, I know I could be wrong as well. Let’s see how this goes.

But, to me, original prediction–if you remember:

1. Biden was going to drop out.  Still think that is going to happen.
2. I don’t think the Dems will “coronate” Kamala Harris to run, but will instead have a competition with those 7 or 8 folks who want to toss their hats into the ring. Maybe one a week in prime time over the next 4 weeks. “Must-see tv”. They will show America who/what they’ve got, and even though it will be fast and bloody, someone will emerge to run against Trump/Vance.  I still think that’s going to happen.
3. But, here’s where the unexpected might make a difference (See above).  Originally, I said that after all the chaos, someone from the Dems would emerge who would be younger and would make Trump look old in comparison, and that most of America would see that it was time for a change to the next generation of leadership.  That still might happen, but I think that if Trump comes out of this a bit different, softer, more empathetic and less “bully”, Trump could beat the new guy/gal. And, IF he does, and IF he becomes a “Unifier” (never his strong suit before), that could work out well for America too.

So…let’s see. We should know more in the next few days.

In any event, so glad that today is a speech and not a eulogy.

“Seaster” Cities Proposal

by Ryan Markiewicz | Jul 10, 2024 | Berlin's Wall

All,

At the bottom of this blog is a very cool presentation our good friend Diane Chido created for us to propose making Erie and Chornomorsk sister cities.

Sister cities are a good way to connect people through schools, universities, businesses, sports teams, different levels of government, the Port of Erie, of course, cultural institutions, etc.

Our team in Ukraine is also working on the Chonomorsk side. As background, Chornomorsk is the port we used to deliver nearly 100,000 MT of Vorex gas pipe (another Erie company, like Logistics Plus) to help support Ukraine’s energy needs. These were the first non-grain ships to deliver to Ukraine since the invasion!

This will be terrific. Especially after the recent bombing of the Kyiv Children’s Hospital, and with the current NATO meeting n Washington, what an appropriate time to be doing this–to “make a statement” and to more concretely stand with the people of Ukraine.

(And who knows, maybe this will start a trend of more sister-city relationships between the US and Ukraine?)

Thanks, all. -JB

(Click the image to open the presentation)

Terror -Pure & Simple

by Ryan Markiewicz | Jul 8, 2024 | Berlin's Wall

All,

As you may know, LP sponsors the American University of Kyiv (AUK) and has several interns from there visiting the US and working in Union Station in Erie. At the bottom of this post is an email from the President of AUK, Dan Rice.

We are also currently hosting a group of kids from Ukraine at our hockey camp here. ​Plus, we have close to 100 employees in Ukraine, and our thoughts go out to them today as well. This is the threat they have to face and live with every day, as there were other strikes on cities/civilians all across Ukraine just before the upcoming NATO conference taking place in Washington, DC, this week.

It is hard to believe that the nation that currently presides over the UN Security Council just bombed a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Putin keeps making all these bogus claims about his nation’s “cause”, but these are clearly just more vicious attacks on the population (and kids) to create terror, not an attack on any “military target”.

To me, Russia has become another ISIS terrorist state, way more than any member of the civilized nations of the world. I hope all Americans recognize this and that we stay united to defeat this terrorism that will not stop at the borders of Ukraine.

We stop Putin now, or we will be fighting him and his aggression further and further westward. The world made that mistake in 1938-39 and paid the price with World War 2.

Hopefully, we have learned our lesson then and will not make the same mistake now.

Stand with Ukraine!

**********************

Hi Jim,

As you know, the Russians attacked the main children’s hospital in Kyiv last night and caused many casualties.

I’m notifying all the sponsor companies so they are aware that the students might be upset. They may know families that have children or staff there. At least one intern’s brother works there. He’s ok but now treating the wounded.

Attacks on children always have a bigger psychological impact on people. All the interns know we have an AUK counselor standing by to talk to them, free and anonymous. This is the view from AUK…

-Dan Rice (President)
American University of Kyiv (AUK)

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Sidebar – Election Thoughts

by Ryan Markiewicz | Jul 4, 2024 | Berlin's Wall

Reprinting this from July 3rd. Was “crazy” at the time. Looking pretty damn good now.

5 of my 6 predictions came true. And the 6th is looking pretty good too now.

Maybe I should NOT have quit betting all those years ago? 🤪

***************

July 3, 2024

All,

Most of you probably don’t know that back in the day, I was kind of a gambling addict (“kind of” is being generous 🙂 )

It’s not the kind of gambling most of you think of. I could go to Vegas or any casino and not spend a dime. I’m not a fan.

But sports gambling.  Because I know sports, I thought I could usually tell who would win. And when you’re right, it seems SO easy. “I knew the Bills were gonna kill ’em”.  But when you’re wrong (more often than not), you can’t figure out how you had it so wrong.

I was addicted for years (actually had my own 900 #–Jim Cash. But that’s another story hahaha), but I gave it up cold turkey one night after a U Kansas college basketball game (yet ANOTHER story) and haven’t bet since. I figured it’s much better this way.

BUT…this political situation, with the US Presidential election, has my betting juices flowing again because I see how this is going to play out.

However, I won’t do it (even though I think I would win big), so the next best thing is to lay out my predictions for you guys.

Again, probably all wet on this, and the odds are not in my favor. But if I were to parlay what’s gonna happen (parlay–look it up 😉 ), here’s what I’d bet on:

1. Biden drops out–maybe as soon as next week.
2. Democrats have to scramble to come up quickly with another candidate (not necessarily Harris), which will be a shitshow. Knives will come out. Lots of Democrats will believe it has to be THEM who runs to beat Trump. Gets ugly.  Goes to the convention in Chicago (which was gonna be a circus already with all the protesting that is planned for it).
3. Republicans will sit back and chuckle at the Democratic mess. And will count their chickens.
4. But someone survives the chaos (democracy is messy), gets selected, and becomes the new, younger candidate, and the Republican humor suddenly turns to “Oh, shit” as
5. They realize that the nation is hungry for a younger generation (more than half American’s already don’t want either Biden or Trump) and against anyone other than Biden (and Bernie, hahahaha) Trump is, and looks old.  Plus, the younger candidate will be able to call him out on things like “winning 2 club championships” as a reason that he is fit to be the President of the United States.
6. And against all odds, the Dems win in November.

As I said, this is a long, long shot. Probably most, maybe none will actually happen.

Just my view of this situation.

(And a good thing I gave up betting 30 years ago, huh? 😉)

Happy Fourth, everyone.

(And America will be ok)

Onward!

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