If you’re looking for reliable, insightful, and digestible economic, political, and business intelligence, you should check out Armada Executive Intelligence. Their Black Owl Report executive briefing system is a must-have for any business leader wanting to stay current on global news and events that could impact your supply chain. Shown below is an excerpt from the Wednesday 19, April 2017 Black Owl Report briefing with news and comments regarding the latest IMF (International Monetary Fund) World Outlook Update. The IMF projects the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains it has seen in both manufacturing and trade.
Here is the Armada Black Owl Report excerpt:
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World Growth to Accelerate According to IMF. The IMF has released its latest World Outlook update, and it bumped up global growth from 3.4% to 3.5%. It left most of its 2018 outlook unchanged – primarily because of Brexit and a few unknowns that could affect global growth. To pull a few highlights out of the report, here are the items that caught our eye:
- From a geopolitical perspective, it would seem that Russia has less to worry about (economically speaking). The IMF sees the country growing finally at 1.4% in 2017 and 2018. That changes the negotiating perspective between Russia and the rest of the world. If it can grow despite economic sanctions imposed on it, then it has flexibility and the ability to maneuver. The global community could always ratchet up global sanctions, but it would take a lot more to get the world to move. Otherwise, unilateral action is likely to have less impact in the future (and therefore becomes a lesser deterrent).
- Emerging markets in general will see growth of 4.5% this year, compared to 4.1% last year.
- China outlook has improved slightly, but the IMF still believes that it will see growth behind its 2016 performance.
- India will see growth accelerate further, growing at 7.2% in 2016 vs. 6.8% in 2016. India ranks 7th among the largest economies in the world, but had just $2.2 trillion in output in 2016 (compared to China’s $11 trillion or the US’ $18 trillion).
- Growth in most of Europe was also lifted by .1 percentage point in 2017, but remained unchanged in 2018. The uncertainty of Brexit (as mentioned) is the greatest factor limiting the IMF from hiking growth expectations in 2018.
- Closer to home, Canada growth was left unchanged at 1.9% for 2017, which is still improved from the 1.4% growth rate experienced in 2016. Mexican growth was also left unchanged at 1.7%, down from the 2.3% posted last year. Uncertainty over NAFTA negotiations, weaker oil prices, and an unexpected sluggishness in global automotive demand has weakened the outlook.
- Lastly, the IMF is baking in some rough geopolitical conditions into several regions (you can read the full, online report here).
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